000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W  3N90W  1N104W  4N127W 2N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 97W AND WITHIN 60 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER W PART OF FORECAST WATERS FROM 32N136W TO 
EQ125W HAS DEEP CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA QUICKLY MOVING 
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA COAST.  TWO SEPARATE BRANCHES OF JET STREAM 
AFFECTING E PAC...ONE WITH 100 KT BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE N 
OF 26N W OF 130W ROTATING AROUND BASE OF VORTEX AND HEADING NE 
OUT OF AREA TOWARDS N CALIFORNIA.  SECOND BRANCH WITH 90 KT CORE 
ENTERS BASIN NEAR 13N140W WITH MUCH MORE MOISTURE ALOFT BREAKING 
LONG STANDING DRY SPELL IN E PAC W OF 120W. MOISTURE FROM SECOND 
BRANCH ENCROACHING INTO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO AND 
CONTINUES INTO N COASTAL STATES IN GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.  
DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ANCHORED IN PLACE 
FORCING FLOW NE.  DRY AREA UNDER RIDGE N OF 20 E OF 118W AND 
REMAINDER OF BASIN E OF 110W EXCEPT MINOR CONVECTION ALONG 
ITCZ.  DRY AIR MASS THEN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO SRN 
HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. 

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT FROM 32N131W 30N134W 28N140W HAS 
VERY STRONG SW WIND AHEAD OF IT AS IT BRUSHES NRN FRINGES OF 
FORECAST WATERS.  LARGE SWELLS FOLLOW STRONG NWLY WIND BEHIND 
IT.  NWW3 MIGHT BE UNDER FORECASTING LARGE SWELLS APPROACHING AS 
SHIP REPORT CONTINUE ABOVE 20 FT JUST N OF BASIN.  SURFACE RIDGE 
REFUSES TO BUDGE E BUT SQUEEZING OF GRADIENT BY COLD FRONT HAS 
INCREASED NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...EXPECTED TO 
ABATE WITHIN 24 HRS.

TRADE WINDS ALONG SWATH FROM 4N TO 18N REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG 
BUT CARRY MODERATE SWELLS FROM RECENT TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT.  
NWW3 DEPICTING THIS SOLUTION QUITE WELL. 

GAP WINDS...SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS GONE BUT STRONG N-NE LINGER AT LEAST 48 HR MORE. 
GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA CONTINUE WITH SPILL OVER FROM SW 
CARIBBEAN WINDS THROUGH NEXT 48 HR.   

$$
WALLY BARNES