000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 5N87W 1N110W 4N125W 3N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 
125W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E PACIFIC WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 
135W AND EXTENDS WELL S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO ALONG 18N.  
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE 
MEAN TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A COLD 
FRONT WHICH HAS ENTERED THE AREA ALONG 30N138W TO 29N140W. 
FURTHER S...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 
22N143W IS DIVING SEWD AT 15 KT. BROADLY DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS STRONG FLOW IS 
ADVECTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW CONUS. 

E OF 110W...
BROAD SWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE FLOW E OF 110W 
WITH A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WELL E OF THE AREA OVER 
VENEZUELA. THIS FLOW WAS CONFLUENT IN NATURE OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND WRN CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT. THIS DRY 
AIR ALOFT WAS ALSO SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 

GAP WINDS...0022-0024 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS SHOWED N TO 
NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NE WINDS OF 
20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND 
REGIME OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO MAY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA AS WELL. 

$$
COBB