000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N. SCATTERED MODERATE 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E PACIFIC WITH AN EMBEDDED  
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 45N139W. SEVERAL 
SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER PATTERN. ONE 
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY NEGATIVE TILT FROM 35N120W TO 16N115W 
THEN EXTENDS S TO A BASE NEAR 3N125W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS IS 
EVIDENT ALONG 35N142W 28N151W AND IS SHIFTING SE WITH TIME. 

THESE TROUGHS ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVE RIDGES. THE 
WESTERN RIDGE IS OVER HAWAII CRESTING NEAR 33N163W. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS 
SPILLING E OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 
330 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 23N140W TO 22N130W WHERE IT NARROWS 
AS IT CONTINUES CYCLONICALLY NE THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N120W TO BEYOND 32N112W. 

THE EASTERN RIDGE EXTENDS NNW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER VENEZUELA 
NEAR 9N63W ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BECOMING PART OF A LONG 
WAVE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES CENTRAL N AMERICA ALONG 96W. DOWNSTREAM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE SE COAST CONUS WITH AXIS 
ALONG 32N75W TO NEAR 18N87W. 

OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. 

GAP WINDS...SUNRISE QSCAT PASS AND SHIP WZJF INDICATED NLY WINDS 
IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT GALE FORCE...CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAT 
MODELS SUGGESTED. EXPECTED WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW GALE IN 30 
HOURS. NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 15 TO 20 KT. N WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT SOON IN GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
NELSON