000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W  4N94W  4N140.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N120W TO 
10N130W.  MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE W OF AXIS N OF 14N CUTS 
INTO OTHERWISE DRY AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE.  DOWNSTREAM... 
WELL ANCHORED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 96W EXTEND DRY AREA 
FURTHER E TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST WATERS WITH MINOR CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ FROM 110W TO 120W AND E OF 90W.  DRY AIR MASS THEN 
CONTINUES INTO ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN BASIN.  

AT THE SURFACE...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS INCREASING AS HIGH 
PRES BUILDS OVER GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT. 
SIMILARLY...GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA WINDS INCREASE IN 
RESPONSE TO SW CARIBBEAN WINDS SPILLING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
MOUNTAINS. 

COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 30N125W 23N138W LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD 
WITH MINOR INCREASE IN NW WIND BUT LARGE BUILDUP OF NW SWELL. 
SPREADING SE.  BRISK NE TRADES CONTINUE UNABATED THRU MID EPAC.

$$
WALLY BARNES