000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 5N90W 3N104W 4N121W 2N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH STILL DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 18N W 
OF 110W TONIGHT..MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING AS SOME OF THE 
ENERGY OF THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WRN U.S. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH IS SWEEPING OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE REGION 
TONIGHT..JUST PASSING 130W AT 06Z AND ABOUT 6 DEGREES FASTER 
THAN THE GFS MODEL SHOWS FOR THE SAME TIME. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN CA SW TO NEAR 
22N135W. WINDS AREN'T A PROBLEM WITH THE FRONT BUT NW SWELL OF 
12 TO 15 FT COULD BE.

FOR DAY 1 A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN OVER THE WRN PORTION 
OF THE REGION ALONG 135W. A BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER 
SRN MEXICO EXTENDING NWD. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE IS A COLD 
FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA DAY 1. WINDS 
INCREASE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20 KT. WHILE WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE 
NW..BUT NW SWELL OF 9 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE W OF BAJA TO 130W. 
AN INCREASE IN N WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC DAY 1 TO 25 KT AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ALSO W OF 
NICARAGUA WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT. NE TRADES BETWEEN 8N AND 20N 
W OF 115W SHOULD BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DAY 1.

A NEW SURGE FROM THE NW MOVES RAPIDLY SE INTO THE REGION ALONG 
130W LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS DAY 2. MID LEVEL RIDGING 
CONTINUES OVER MEXICO BLOCKING THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGE 
TROUGH TO THE W. ON THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 
30N130W 26N140W DAY 2 WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 9 TO 11 
FT. SWELL W OF BAJA GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TO 8 TO 9 FT. LOOK FOR 
GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TO 25 KT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. NE TRADES DIMINISH SOME 
DAY 2 AS HIGH PRESSURE W OF BAJA WEAKENS SOME.

$$
RRG