000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 5N90W 2N100W 3N120W2N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 2N113W.  

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 240 NM NW OF LOW 6N76W ON THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE E PACIFIC. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
IS ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGE PATTERN WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 
32N120W 10N122W AT THE MOMENT. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS NOTED JUST W
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 155W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPILLING 
OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 26N W OF 123W. DRY 
UPPER AIR IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N114W 25N119W 16N133W. 

DOWNSTREAM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NW INTO THE AREA 
ALONG 4N90W 22N103W 35N105W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED 
NEAR 22N87W. A SMALL UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED SW OF THE 
RIDGE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N102W 20N116W. 
OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N117W 
23N131W ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NW SWELLS WHICH WILL MOVE E TO THE 
BAJA PENINSULA SAT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS E OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN WAKE 
OF COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN 
SPREADING E INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 
20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA BY 36 HOURS.

$$
NELSON