000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 UTC FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ...AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N79W 2N85W 2S100W 2N110W 2N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 4N90W.  

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 7N78W ON THE COLOMBIAN COAST.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE AXIS OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING EWD OVER THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY. THE AXIS WAS ALONG 124W ACCORDING TO 
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AT 12Z. 
THE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A AREA OF SUBSTANCE FROM NORTH BAJA SW TO 
18N130W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NNE ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH 
TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N121W TO 24N130W. THE FRONT WILL 
MOVE OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY WITH WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT AND NW SWELL 12 TO 15 FT FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLOWLY OVER MEXICO AND 
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON DAY 1 AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES 
INLAND AND WEAKENS. STRONG W AND NW WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE 
OVER THE REGION N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER 
MEXICO WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. ON THE SURFACE THE COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN E OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ. WINDS 
WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KT WITH SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN NW SWELL. THE 
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
NWLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL 6 TO 8 FT. THE MID PACIFIC HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM HIGH AT 32N125W SW TO 30N140W 
AND SE TO 17N110 AND PRODUCE NE TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 20N AND W 
OF 120W. HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH FROM INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL 
PUSH A SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASING WINDS TO 
20 TO 25 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION 
OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TO 32N131W 
28N140W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS BUILDING 9 TO 12 FT FOLLOWING 
THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO 
ALONG 95W. ON THE SURFACE MAP WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO 
30N119W WITH WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DIMINISHING BUT NW SWELL 
9 TO 10 FT WILL CONTINUE DAY 2 N OF 25N. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE 
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT 
SEAS TO 8 FT OR HIGHER IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. 

$$
RJO