000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 3N90W EQUATOR/100W 2N120W 
2N130W 1N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 
5N90W. 

ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 7N78W ON THE COLOMBIAN COAST. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE AXIS OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING EWD OVER THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE AXIS WAS ALONG 130W ACCORDING 
TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY 
SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL FOR 06Z. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS 
NNE OVER MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OVER THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AND NW SWELL 12 
TO 15 FT.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLOWLY DAY 1 AS THE 
CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND N OF THE 
AREA. STRONG W AND NW WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION 
N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN 
ALONG 100W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO 
120W AND WEAKEN. THE FRONT WILL STILL PACK WINDS TO 20 KT AND NW 
SWELL 12 TO 15 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
NWLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL 6 TO 8 FT. THE MID PACIFIC HIGH 
WILL RIDGE IN OVER THE AREA FROM 30N140W TO 18N110W AND PRODUCE 
NE TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 20N AND W OF 120W.

FOR DAY 2 ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION 
OF THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD 
TO ALONG 95W. ON THE SURFACE MAP WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO 
30N120W WITH WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DIMINISHING BUT NW SWELL 
9 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE DAY 2 N OF 25N. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE 
WILL SUPPORT A NEW COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE NW 
CORNER OF THE REGION. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
TO 20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH A 
SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 
INCREASING TO 8 FT DAY 2. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20 KT 
W OF THE NICARAGUAN COAST AS THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH AFFECTS THE 
NW CARIB AREA. 

$$
RRG