000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 4N100W 3N120W 2N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE N AND W PORTION 
OF THE AREA. TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF A LINE 32N103W 20N110W 
18N120W 8N121W TO 8N140W.  THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS COVERED 
BY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IMPLIES UPPER 
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD 32N122W TO 
28N130W 26N140W.  THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW/MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ABOUT 10-20 KT BUT LARGE NWLY 
SWELL ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. 

WELL DEFINED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N91W.  ASSOCIATED MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS 
NORTH OF 12N E OF 102W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE AREA E OF 110W.

WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA.

GAP WINDS...GFS MODEL FORECASTS WINDS OF 25 TO 25 KT IN ABOUT 30 
HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.

$$
LL