000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N83W 5N90W 4N100W EQ114W 3N125W 
1N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 90W TO 100W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE N AND W PORTION 
OF THE AREA. TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF A LINE 32N103W 20N113W 
16N120W 8N122W TO 8N140W.  THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS COVERED 
BY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IMPLIES 
SUBSIDENCE.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD 32N124W TO 28N130W 
26N140W.  THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. 
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ABOUT 10-20 KT BUT LARGE NWLY SWELL 
ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. 

WELL DEFINED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W.  ASSOCIATED MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS 
NORTH OF 12N E OF 102W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE AREA E OF 110W EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE FROM 
5N99W TO 7N89W. THIS MOISTURE IS FROM SOME ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ.

WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA.

GAP WINDS...GFS MODEL FORECASTS WINDS TO ABOUT 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. QUIKSCAT DID NOT SAMPLE THAT AREA TODAY 
AND THEIR WERE NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE.   THE NELY 20 KT 
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 1200 UTC EACH MORNING.

$$
LL