000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N80W 5.5N90W 6N96W 2N110W 3N120W 
1N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
AXIS FROM 93W TO 100W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE N AND W PORTION 
OF THE AREA. TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF ABOUT 110W.  
THE TROUGH COVERS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. THERE ARE A 
FEW AREAS OF MOISTURE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS COVERED 
BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS ALONG 30N128W 27.5N135W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT IS 
MARKED BY A LINE OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS BEHIND THE 
FRONT ARE ABOUT 10-20 KT BUT LARGE NWLY SWELL ARE MOVING 
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA S OF 18N W OF 110W.

VERY WEAK AND NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW 
MEXICO NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA NE TO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. 
SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING 
AROUND 20 KT. 

WELL DEFINED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM JUST EAST OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 5N99W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC E OF 110W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 110W EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND
OF MOISTURE FROM 4N100W TO 6N93W. THIS MOISTURE IS FROM SOME 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...GFS MODEL FORECASTS WINDS TO ABOUT 20 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. QUIKSCAT DID NOT SAMPLE THAT AREA 
THIS MORNING AND THEIR WERE NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE.   
THE NELY 20 KT WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 1200 UTC EACH MORNING.

$$
BROWN