000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 5N86W 6N96W 3N110W 3N123W 1N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N97W.  

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 12N134W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATED THE REGION TONIGHT. THE CENTER 
OF THE CIRCULATION WAS WELL N OF THE AREA BUT THE OVERALL 
CIRCULATION WAS N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDED FROM S OF 10N NE TO NE MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAD ENTERED THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION 
EXTENDING FROM 30N131W TO 28N140W AND WAS MOVING SE 15 KT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NLY TO 20 KT TONIGHT. 

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN DAY 1 WITH THE STRONG 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. ON THE SURFACE THE 
COLD FRONT MOVES TO 30N128W 27N138W AND WEAKENS FURTHER. THE MID 
PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS SE OVER THE REGION TO 15N110W. NE WINDS TO 
20 KT CONTINUE W OF NICARAGUA TO 90W.  WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WILL BE NLY 20 TO 25 KT DAY 1 WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT WITH NW 
SWELL.

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL ANOTHER 20 METERS ALONG 20N AS 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO SRN CA. OTHERWISE A 
RIDGE REMAINS S OF 15N WITH A CENTER OVER SRN MEXICO. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES WHILE THE MID PACIFIC 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTENDS SE FROM 30N140W TO 15N105W. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST DIMINISH TO 15 KT AS THE RIDGE NOSES IN 
OVER THE AREA. WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST WILL BE 
MOSTLY LIGHT. 

$$
RRG