000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ CONTINUES TO SHOW DOUBLE STRUCTURE WITH CONFLUENT ZONE BOTH 
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. THE NORTHERN AXIS IS ILL-DEFINED 
ALONG 2N78W 6N90W 1N107W 1N140W. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION 
ALONG THE AXIS OR OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA.
 
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE E PACIFIC N OF 20N W OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 
225 NM SW OF THE S CALIFORNIA COAST IS MOVING NE TOWARDS S 
CALIFORNIA.  IT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. 
THE AREA W OF THE TROUGH IS COVERED BY MAINLY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE 
EXCEPT FOR A TONGUE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE LINE 28N130W TO 
29N140W. EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...SEA OF 
CORTEZ...NW MEXICO AND INTO THE SW U.S.. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH 
PRES COVERS THE ENTIRE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 
110W. OVER THE TROPICAL AREA...MODERATE ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA NNE 
ACROSS NE MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE RIDGE HAS BUILT NORTHWARD DURING 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MEXICO 
BUT WILL LIKELY FLATTEN OUT N OF THE BORDER. 

E OF 110W...
WELL DEFINED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE E PACIFIC TO ABOUT 2N103W. CYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS SE MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO ABOUT 2N103W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE E PACIFIC AND 
MEXICO SE OF LINE 30N104W 18N110W EQ110W. 

GAP WINDS...QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING 
CONFIRM THE 20-25 KT NELY WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF 
OF FONSECA. WINDS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 
36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR 
LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

$$
BROWN