000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
WEAK CONFLUENCE EVIDENT ALONG 2N WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY NOTED S 
OF THE EQUATOR. CONVECTION SUPPRESSED N OF THE EQUATOR.
 
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE E PACIFIC. AN EMBEDDED 
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH THE 
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH AXIS ALONG 32N131W 12N121W. DRY UPPER AIR 
IS NOTED WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N125W 17N133W. AT 
THE SURFACE A FRONT HAS STALLED FROM 32N112W TO 25N116W.  

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1N105W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING N THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR  
25N105W THEN MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE DOMINATING CENTRAL N 
AMERICA. A MOISTURE PLUME IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 20N122W 32N112W AND CONTINUES NE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS 
AND SPILLS ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALONG 32N BETWEEN 100W AND 
98W.

AN UPPER CUTOFF CYCLONE IS WELL DEFINED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AT 25N94W AND IS SHIFTING E WITH TIME. ITS ENVELOPE OF UPPER 
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 90W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 5N75W WITH A 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
TO A GENTLE CREST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RESULTANT 
DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED E OF 112W.

GAP WINDS...NE 20-25 KT WINDS NOTED IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF 
OF FONSECA WITH THE AREA OF WINDS DECREASING THROUGH NEXT 36 
HOURS.

$$
NELSON