000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010433
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N81W  3N99W 3N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION...
...W OF 115W...
UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM 32N TO 13N ALONG 128W BRINGS DRY 
AIRMASS N OF 18N W OF 131W.  LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE N OF 8N W OF 
110W FLOWING ALONG WITH 90 KT JET CORE ON W SIDE OF TROUGH 
TOWARDS W COAST OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA AND NW MEXICO.  COLD FRONT 
ENTERING COAST...ALBEIT WEAK...COULD PROVIDE GOOD LIFTING FOR 
RAIN EVENT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION TRAINS 
COMING OVER LAND. 
 
S OF 13N UPPER FLOW REMAINS QUASI ZONAL AND QUITE DRY... 
SPECIALLY S OF 7N...WITH NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION...NOT EVEN AT THE ITCZ.  

...E OF 115W...
NARROW RIDGE ALONG 114W N OF 15N ENHANCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER 
BAJA AND NW MEXICO AS MENTIONED ABOVE PROMOTES VERY DRY AIRMASS 
S OF 18N E OF 115W.  DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALONG 98W EXTENDS DRY 
SWATH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOST 
OF CARIBBEAN SEA.  
 
GAP WINDS...LINGERING STRONG WINDS...DOWN FROM EARLIER STORM 
FORCE...SHOULD BE HISTORY WITHIN NEXT 6 HRS.  GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
HAVE SPILL OF STRONG CARIBBEAN BASIN WINDS CROSS OVER E PAC 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN 48 HRS POSSIBLY GONE...UNLESS 
REBUILDING HIGH PRES ON OVER ATLC RE-STRENGTHENS CARIBBEAN 
TRADES.

COLD FRONT APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA FORCING NW WIND ALONG 
COAST AND SEA OF CORTEZ EXPECTED TO BUILD WIND AND SEAS FOR 
24-36 HRS AND THEN DECREASE JUST AS FAST AS IT INCREASED THEM. 

$$
WALLY BARNES