000 AXNT20 KNHC 130003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic will force fresh to near gale-force easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. Gale force winds are expected to pulse offshore Colombia tonight through Sun night. Seas should peak near 12 ft during each night's late night/early morning hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the above GALE WARNING. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the W coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 02N30W to 02N42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02S to 04N E of 20W and from 03S to 06N W of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge centered by a strong high pressure over Louisiana covers the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a stationary front over the NW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh NW to NE winds over great portions of the E Gulf and gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the SW Gulf. Off the W Yucatan Peninsula, winds are fresh to strong from the NE. Seas are moderate to 5 ft in the SE Gulf and in the eastern Bay of Campeche, and slight across the remainder basin. For the forecast, strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan in the evenings through the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds with slight to moderate seas can be expected through the next several days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features for information on the Gale Warning off NW Colombia. A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with isolated showers. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Atlantic subtropical ridge that extends along the northern Caribbean. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean as well as the Leeward Islands adjacent waters. Fresh to strong NE winds are also ongoing in the Windward Passage. Seas are slight in the NW basin ahead of the front, moderate over the E and portions of the central basin, and rough in the 8-11 ft range over Colombia and Venezuela adjacent waters For the forecast, gale-force winds will pulse off the northern coast of Colombia at night through the weekend. A stationary front from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will gradually dissipate through Sat. Some rough seas are possible near the Yucatan Channel through Sat. High pressure will build in as the front washes out with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across much of the basin, locally strong near the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba. Similar winds may develop near the Gulf of Honduras by mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N74W SW to Andros Island to W Cuba where it stalls into the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind the front over the offshore waters N of 30N while rough seas peak at 10 ft. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge. The pressure gradient between the front and the ridge supports a broad area of fresh to strong NE winds N of 17N between 35W and 65W along with rough seas in the 8-10 ft range in mixed N and NE long period swell. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds extends to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to 40W with 8-9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N68W to the SE Bahamas early Sat while weakening, then from 31N61W to eastern Cuba early Sun where it will stall and gradually dissipate. Strong winds N of 29N and near the front will diminish by Sat night. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will linger through the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the wake of the front through early next week with more tranquil marine conditions expected. $$ Ramos