000 AXNT20 KNHC 090458 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Apr 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING E OF 35W... The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1027 mb located over the Atlantic, west of the Madeira Islands near 32N26W and lower pressure over western Africa will continue to support gale-force winds in the Meteo-France marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for N or NE winds 8 (Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts. A Gale Warning is in effect through at least 09/1200 UTC. For more details refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, and continues SW to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15 to the Equator at 25W, to 01S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04S to 05N between 17W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure off the Carolinas coast across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is promoting fresh to strong E to SE winds across the Gulf, with the exception of gentle winds in the NE Gulf. Seas are in the 4 to 8 ft range W of 90W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft ft E of 90W, except 1 to 3 ft in the coastal waters of W Florida. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is near the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. For the forecast, the aforementioned high will shift further into the Atlantic through mid week. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most of Gulf tonight. Winds will then become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front, increasing to near gale- force across the central Bay of Campeche Tue night. This next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of the area Fri morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail off the coast of Colombia, N of Venezuela, in the Gulf of Honduras as well as the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range off the coast of Colombia, and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 2 to 4 ft in the NE Gulf. An Atlantic cold front extends across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands generating mostly cloudy skies and some shower activity. The front is forecast to linger in the vicinity of the above mentioned islands tonight and Tue helping to maintain the shower activity. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western Atlantic through Wed, tightening the pressure gradient across the region. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean tonight, and pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia tonight through Thu night. The building high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting this evening. Winds will start to diminish the end of the week as the high pressure shifts eastward and well NE of the region. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N44W and continues SW to over Hispaniola. A surface trough follows and stretches from 30N48W to northern Cuba. Mainly low clouds and isolated showers are associated with this front and trough. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 28N and E of the front to about 38W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 9 to 15 ft in NW are noted N of 26N and W of the trough to about 64W. A 1025 mb high pressure located off the Carolinas coast follow the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of 1029 mb high pressure situated near 39N17W. Fresh to strong NE winds are across the southern periphery of the high pressure center roughly from 12N to 30N between 20W and the west coast of Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds will prevail N of 29N and E of 60W tonight. Large NW swell will build across the NE waters through Tue night. High pressure in the far western Atlantic will drift to near Bermuda by Wed night, then shift E Thu and Fri. The associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed through Thu. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed evening and increase to strong to near gale-force Wed night through Thu, ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross the Florida Peninsula Thu night, with gales possible Thu night N of 30N and E of the front. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning. $$ KRV