000 AXNT20 KNHC 070900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Apr 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 03.5N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N19W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 11W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. A thermal trough that developed over the Yucatan peninsula last evening has propagated west of the peninsula. The pressure gradient between the trough and ridge over the northern Gulf of supporting fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the trough, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the waters W of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail E of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range W of 90W, and 2-4 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf will diminish today. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and become SE to S Tue through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This next cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed morning, and reach from near Mobile Bay to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thu morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft are over the south central Caribbean N of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are elsewhere S of 15N between 65W and 70W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2 to 4 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela tonight. High pressure will build SE across the western Atlantic early next week tightening the pressure gradient across the area. This will result in fresh to strong winds expanding in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean Mon, pulsing to near gale- force at night off of Colombia Mon night through Wed night. The building high pressure will also support fresh to strong winds developing in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras starting Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N54W to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N within 90 nm east of the front, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. with a reinforcing front extending from from 31N62W to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8 to 9 ft are N of 28N west of this front to 75W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere W of the fronts. Farther east, high pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 29N31W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are south of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range in NW swell N of 20N and E of 37W. Seas elsewhere are in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N54W to Hispaniola will weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters through Mon night. The reinforcing cold front extending from 31N62W to the northern Bahamas will quickly move across the area today, accompanied by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. Associated large NW swell will build across the NE waters Mon through Tue night. High pressure will move off the Carolina coast Mon, then drift SE to near Bermuda by Wed night. The associated ridge will support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed. Fresh southerly winds will develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas on Wed and increase to strong to near gale- force Wed night through Thu. $$ AL