000 AXNT20 KNHC 060557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 12N16W and extends SW to 01S30W, then transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 03S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 10W and 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N90W dominates the basin. Mostly light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident across the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure center will shift northeastward and inland through the weekend. This will support mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf through Sat night before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and continue through early Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect the next cold front to move into the western Gulf on Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from central Cuba to central Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft are evident across the Caribbean south of 16N, with strong winds and 7 ft seas off the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is evident. For the forecast, high pressure behind the dissipating front will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela at night through Sun night, then will expand in areal coverage across most of the central Caribbean Mon through Wed, as high pressure builds N of the area. Wind will reach near gale- force at night off of Colombia Mon night through Wed night. Expect strong NE winds to develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to central Cuba. A surface trough extends from 31N70W to 27N73W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted west of the trough and north of 28N. Farther east, a 1022 mb high pressure area is centered near 27N50W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of the high pressure over the tropical Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 25N30W. Fresh NW winds 8 to 12 ft combined seas in NW swell follow this front. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Sat morning, then weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun through Mon. Strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front N of 28N will gradually diminish by Sat. A reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late tonight through Sun, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina early next week, with the associated ridge expected to support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night, becoming fresh to strong Wed. $$ MoraMora