000 AXNT20 KNHC 050906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 13N17W and extends southwest to 01S30W. The ITCZ continues from near 01S30W and extends southwest to 03N37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 06W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 30W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, with a 1018 mb high centered near 26N92W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with moderate to locally fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range E of 90W, and 3-5 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh winds will decrease today as high pressure builds across the area. The area of high pressure will shift eastward through the weekend. This will support mostly fresh E to SE winds over the western and central Gulf through Sat night before diminishing Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will then develop over most of Gulf Mon and Mon night, and continue through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found W of the front. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong winds are noted S of 15N between 64W and 72W. Moderate winds are found elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft W of the front, 4-7 ft E of 75W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the front is expected to gradually dissipate by this weekend. High pressure behind the front will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico on Sat to the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. by Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are west of the front, affecting mainly the waters from the Yucatan Channel to Belize adjacent waters through this morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia at night through Sun night. The fresh to strong winds will expand in areal coverage, reaching near gale-force speeds Mon night as high pressure builds N of the area. Expect strong NE winds to develop in the Windward Passage Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N67W to Central Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft are N of 28N W of the front and within 60 nm east of the front. Farther east, a 1020 mb high is centered near 24N51W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Another cold front is east of the high, extending from 31N27W to 28N40W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N W of the front to 42W and within 90 nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are found S of 20N between 35W and 60W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are N of 29N between 28W and 42W. Seas of 8-12 ft are elsewhere N of 25N between 20W and 55W. Seas of 8-9 ft are also found S of 13N between 41W and 55W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from near 31N58W to the Turks and Caicos Sat morning, then weaken as it moves across the E and SE forecast waters Sun through Mon. Strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front N of 28N will gradually diminish by Sat. A reinforcing cold front will quickly move across the area from late Fri night through the upcoming weekend, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 27N. High pressure will move off the coast of South Carolina early next week, with the associated ridge expected to support moderate to fresh winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean approaches through Tue night. $$ AL