000 AXNT20 KNHC 031103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Alabama SW to the western Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are present behind the front, except for gale-force off the coast of Veracruz where seas have built to 11 ft. N of Veracruz, seas behind the front are in the 8-10 ft range. Fresht to strong SW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft are ahead of the front covering most of the E Gulf. The front will reach from South Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula this evening and to just SE of the Gulf early Thu. Gale-force offshore northerly winds off Veracruz will diminish this morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late Sat. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 30N today and tonight. Seas will be building to near 12 ft this evening. Increasing winds and building seas are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe, are expected to precede the front. Conditions will improve Fri into Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic waters through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 02S27W and to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 03N and between 08W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico. As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Alabama SW to the western Bay of Campeche. Gales are currently ongoing over the Veracruz adjacent waters along with rough seas to 11 ft. Elsewhere behind the front, winds hold strong to near gale-force speeds and seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Fresh to strong SW winds cover the eastern half of the basin with moderate seas to 7 ft. Scattered showers and tstms are happening over the north-central and NE Gulf, stronger over the Florida Panhandle and adjacent waters. For the forecast, the front will reach from South Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula this evening and to just SE of the Gulf early Thu. Gale-force offshore northerly winds off Veracruz will diminish this morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for fresh to strong E to SE winds to develop over the western and central Gulf through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to exert its influence over the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between this 1018 mb high pressure system and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft cover much of the remainder of the basin. However, light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in the Windward Passage and the far SW Caribbean waters. For the forecast, winds in the south-central Caribbean will pulse to strong speeds at night starting tonight and continuing through Sun night. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds late this morning. Otherwise, the tail of a cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thu morning and extend from central Cuba SW to the northern Belize adjacent waters by Thu evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect off NE Florida. Broad subtropical ridging dominates the subtropical Atlantic, providing light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas across the offshore waters N of Puerto Rico and E of the central and southern Bahamas. Between the ridge and an approaching cold front, fresh to strong southerly winds have developed off the NE coast of Florida. Seas over this region are 5 to 7 ft. A broad area of fresh to strong SW to W winds are also ongoing between the high pressure center and the tail of a cold front that extends from 30N51W to 30N60W. Seas over this region are 8-13 ft. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front enters region near 30N20W and continues southwestward to 27N30W, becoming a surface trough to 19N47W. Fresh N to NE winds and seas to 8 ft are affecting the Canary and Cape Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will shift eastward today as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late Sat. Gale- force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 30N today and tonight. Increasing winds and building seas are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe, are expected to precede the front. Otherwise, a couple of weaker cold fronts will sweep across the northern waters Fri through Sun night, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds. $$ Ramos