000 AXNT20 KNHC 030429 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale- force northerly winds are present behind the front, along with seas of 5-8 ft. The front will reach from the near Apalachicola to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula Wed evening and to just SE of the Gulf early Thu. Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale- force offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Seas will build to 10 ft in the area of these winds by early Wed morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late Sat. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 30N Wed and Wed night. Seas will be building to near 12 ft Wed evening. Increasing winds and building seas are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe, are expected to precede the front. Conditions will improve Fri into Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic waters through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southward to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 02S27W and to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 03N and between 08W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. The strong pressure gradient behind the front is discussed in the Special Features section. Ahead of the front, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned cold front and a 1020 mb high pressure system in the western Atlantic result in moderate to fresh southerly winds. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. For the forecast, a late season cold front is across the western Gulf, extending from SE Louisiana SW to just N of Veracruz, Mexico. The front will reach from the near Apalachicola to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Wed, from South Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula Wed evening and to just SE of the Gulf early Thu. Northerly winds behind the front are expected to reach gale-force offshore Veracruz late tonight into early Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected elsewhere west of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, may impact some sections of the area. Winds and seas will decrease Thu through Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through the end of the week allowing for fresh to strong E to SE winds to develop over the western and central Gulf through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to extend its influence over the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between this 1020 mb high pressure system and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft cover much of the remainder of the basin. However, light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and SW Caribbean waters. For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure north of the region and relatively lower pressure in NW Colombia will allow for strong to near gale-force NE winds off the coast of Colombia through early Wed morning. These winds will then pulse to strong speeds at night starting Wed night and continuing through Sun night. Fresh to near gale-force E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to fresh speeds late Wed morning. The tail of a cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thu morning and extend from central Cuba SW to the northern Belize adjacent waters by Thu evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect off NE Florida. Broad subtropical ridging dominates the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found north of 25N and west of 75W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to near gale-force westerly breezes occurring north of 27N and between 35W and 60W due to a strong cold front located north of our area. Seas in the area described are 8-12 ft. Farther east, a stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N18W and continues southwestward to 27N31W, becoming a surface trough to 15N52W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present west of 25W and between 10N and 25N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will shift eastward through tonight as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Wed afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early Thu, from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu evening, then across the eastern part of the area through late Sat. Gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 30N Wed and Wed night. Increasing winds and building seas are expected elsewhere ahead and behind the front north of 26N through Thu evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to isolated severe, are expected to precede the front. Otherwise, a couple of cold fronts will sweep across the northern waters Fri through Sun night, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds. $$ Delgado