000 AXNT20 KNHC 311800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of Guinea just north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 02N17W. An ITCZ continues from 02N17W to beyond 00S22W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from the Equator to 02N between 18W and 24W. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends westward from southern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Moderate with locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the south-central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds will prevail across the western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western Gulf on Tue. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected west of the front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu as the front moves southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A couple of surface troughs embedded within the trades are triggering scattered showers from near the Honduras-Nicaragua border, northeastward to near Puerto Rico. Convergent trades are causing widely scattered showers near the ABC and Windward Islands. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen at the south-central and north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba, across the Windward Passage, and off the southern coast of Hispaniola through Tue. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia through the middle of the week. Winds and seas will then decrease by the second half of the week as the area of high pressure shifts eastward further from the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N40W to 20N48W. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 150 nm east of the front. A surface trough is producing scattered showers northeast of the Leeward Islands from 20N to 23N between 54W and 62W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 24N between 36W and the cold front. Otherwise, a pair of high pressures near 26N70W and 26N30W are supporting light to gentle with locally moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate northerly swell north of 20N between 25W and the Florida-Georgia border. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and seas at 9 to 11 ft in large northerly swell exist north of 27N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. Farther south, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate northerly swell dominate from 10N to 27N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell dominate. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed moderate to large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 65W will decrease from west to east through Mon. A cold front will move off the coast of Florida on Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba Thu. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead and behind this front, mainly N of 25N. $$ Chan