000 AXNT20 KNHC 302346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 04S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 13W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1023 mb high pressures centered over the SE United States and the western Atlantic provide for fairly tranquil weather conditions. Locally strong winds are noted off the NW Yucatan Peninsula with seas to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh return flow is noted in the western Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf. Seas range 2 to 4 ft across most of the basin. For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western Gulf on Tue. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed, and will move SE of the area Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected west of the front. Winds and seas will decrease Thu as the front moves out of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across central Hispaniola to 15N76W. Fresh to strong NE continue to be analyzed in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba to E Jamaica, just behind the surface trough. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the lee of the Dominican Republic. Seas are 4-7 ft within the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba, along the east coast of Jamaica, and along southern Dominican Republic. Fresh to locally strong trades are analyzed within 120 nm of NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support pulsing of fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across the Windward Passage through Sun evening. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the southern coast of Hispaniola the remainder of this weekend, and off the coast of Colombia through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will then decrease across the area the middle of the week as the area of high pressure shifts eastward and further from the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Significant Swell Special Feature has been cancelled, as the area of swell decreases. However, 12-13 ft seas in 10 second NW swell remain over the waters north of 29N between 56W and 62W. The area of 12 ft seas will continue to subside and seas will drop below 12 ft Sun morning. A cold front extends from 31N53W to the north coast of Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered showers are along the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are north of 27N west of the front to 65W, with moderate to fresh N winds south of 27N west of the front across the southern Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N53W to 20N70W to 24N74W to 31N73W. Peak seas are described in the above paragraph. A surface trough extends from 31N46W to 19N49W. Fresh to strong S winds are within 240 nm east of the surface trough axis. Seas are 8-11 ft north of 10N between the coast of Africa and 50W. Seas are 12-14 ft in 13 second N swell north of the Canary Islands between the coast of Africa and 28W. 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 28N74W. 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 31N36W. In undescribed areas of the basin, seas are 4-7 ft in moderate winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and rough seas follow the front E of 70W. Winds and seas will decrease from west to east through early Mon as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Another cold front will move off the coast of Florida Wed. This front will extend from near Bermuda to W Cuba Thu. Increasing winds and building seas will be both ahead of, and behind, this front N of 25N. $$ AReinhart