000 AXNT20 KNHC 301605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 04S40W. No significant convection is noted north of the equator at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... 1023 mb high pressures centered over the SE United States and the western Atlantic provide for fairly tranquil weather conditions. Gentle to moderate SE return flow and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, pulsing fresh E to SE winds will prevail across the western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western Gulf on Tue. The front will extend from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected west of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across central Hispaniola to 15N76W. Fresh to strong NE continue to be analyzed in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba to E Jamaica, just behind the surface trough. Seas are 4-6 ft within the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba, and along the east coast of Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong trades are analyzed within 120 nm of NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across the Windward Passage through this evening. Winds and seas will then diminish by tonight. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the southern coast of Hispaniola this weekend, and off the coast of Colombia through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Significant Swell Special Feature has been cancelled, as the area of swell decreases. However, 12-14 ft seas in 10 second NW swell remain over the waters north of 29N between 60W and 65W. The area of 12 ft seas will continue to shrink and seas will diminish below 12 ft Sun morning. A cold front extends from 31N56W to the north coast of Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered showers are along the front. Fresh to strong NW winds are north of 27N west of the front to 65W, with moderate to fresh N winds south of 27N west of the front across the southern Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N53W to 20N70W to 24N74W to 31N73W. Peak seas are described in the above paragraph. A surface trough extends from 31N47W to 19N49W. Fresh to strong S winds are within 240 nm east of the surface trough axis. Seas are 8-11 ft north of 10N between the coast of Africa and 50W. Seas are 12-15 ft in 13 second N swell north of the Canary Islands between the coast of Africa and 28W. 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N79W. 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 31N37W. In undescribed areas of the basin, seas are 4-7 ft in moderate winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and rough seas follow the front. Winds and seas will decrease from west to east this weekend as high pressure builds eastward in the wake of the front. $$ Mahoney