000
AXNT20 KNHC 300351
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: A very tight 
pressure gradient between the surface trough along 51W and the 
1026 mb high pressure system over the central Atlantic has been 
sustaining a large fetch of fresh to strong southeast winds for 
the past several days. This synoptic set up has resulted in seas 
of 10 to 14 ft over the waters from 23N to 31N between 44W and 
52W with period 10-17 sec. In the eastern Atlantic, seas of 12 to
16 ft are extending E to around 33W, with period of 10-15 sec. 
This swell should decay tonight into Sat morning with seas falling
below 12 ft.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 00N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N19W to 06S57W. Isolated showers are evident within
200 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure system in the NE Gulf of Mexico continues
to dominate the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are occurring south of a
line from SW Florida to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Seas
in these waters are 3-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf will shift E
this weekend and support fresh E to SE winds across the western
Gulf Sat through Mon. Another cold front will enter the western
Gulf on Tue. The front will extends from the Florida panhandle
to the Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected west of the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to NE Honduras.
Isolated to scattered showers are noted within 90 nm north of the
surface trough. Fresh to strong NE winds are found in the 
Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Seas in the western
Caribbean and Windward Passage are 3-6 ft. Fresh to locally 
strong easterly trade winds are also present within 120 nm of NW 
Colombia. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and
across the Windward Passage tonight through Sat evening. Winds
and seas will then diminish by Sat night. Strong trade winds and
rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern
coast of Hispaniola this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell that is impacting sections of the central and 
eastern Atlantic. 

A cold front extends from 31N62W to northern Haiti. Isolated to 
scattered showers are seen ahead of the frontal boundary. The 
remainder of the western Atlantic is dominates by a weak 
subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the
cold front result in fresh to strong northerly winds between the 
front and 73W. Seas in these waters are 8-14 ft, with the highest 
seas occurring near 31N66W. West of 73W, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N52W to 24N50W and
to 13N61W. Scattered moderate convection is present ahead of the
trough to 43W and north of 23N. Fresh to strong southerly winds
are occurring east of the trough to 43W and north of 21N. Seas in
these waters are 9-13 ft. The rest of the basin is under the
influence of a 1026 mb high pressure centered in the north-central
Atlantic. Fresh to strong westerly winds are noted north of 28N
and east of 24W. Seas in these waters are 12-16 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
 
For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N62W to W 
Hispaniola. The front will reach from 31N55W to the Mona Passage 
by Sat, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and 
rough seas will follow this front. Winds and seas will decrease 
from west to east this weekend as high pressure builds eastward in
the wake of the front. 

$$
Delgado