000 AXNT20 KNHC 261803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Swell Event: Large swell generated by a a 1002 mb low pressure system north of the area near 34N66W is propagating southward through the waters north of about 27N and between 64W and 75W. Seas produced by this swell are in the range of 12 to 19 ft. The low pressure will move slowly south-southeast and today. and is expected to cross into the Atlantic forecast waters south of 31N through mid-week, then gradually becomes stationary near 26N60W on Thu while dissipating. Large north to northeast swell will gradually subside west of 70W through late Wed, but persist east of 70W through Fri as the swell moves eastward. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border and continues southwestward to near 03N17W. Latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ extends from 03N17W to the equator at 22W and to the coast of Brazil near 05S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 19W-24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The earlier gale warning has been allowed to expire. A cold front is analyzed from near Mobile, Alabama to 26N92W and to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Another cold front is just along the Texas coast. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are behind the first front. The pressure gradient between this front and high pressure east of Florida is sustaining strong to near- gale force south to southeast winds east of the front. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are being produced by these winds. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are elsewhere across the area, except for slightly higher seas of 7 to 10 ft offshore southwestern Louisiana. Lower seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm east of the first front north of 28N. For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force south to southeast winds east of the front will quickly diminish today. The front will slowly shift to the southeastern of the Gulf through late Thu. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas over mainly the south-central and southeast Gulf behind the front Thu and Fri, as high pressure builds across the basin and low pressure deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure that is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. Latest available partial ASCAT data passes indicate generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. These winds are due to the gradient found on the southwestern periphery of broad high pressure that is controlling the weather regime of the eastern and central Atlantic. Latest buoy and altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas of 6 to 8 ft in the northwestern Caribbean and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except for lower seas of 3 to 5 ft over the central Caribbean. Moderate to strong subsidence aloft as a result of upper-level ridging is leading to dry sinking air that is practically inhibiting convection over the basin. For the forecast, the fresh to strong southeast winds over the northwestern Caribbean will diminish across all but the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon through tonight, as a cold front moves SE into the central Gulf of Mexico. Winds across the northwest Caribbean will diminish to moderate to locally fresh late Wed as the cold front reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will then move through the Yucatan Channel and over the northwestern Caribbean Thu afternoon and evening, reach from the Windward Passage to NE Honduras Fri evening, and dissipate across the northeast Caribbean Islands late Sat. Large north swell will move into the Atlantic Passages of the northeastern and eastern Caribbean late today and persist through early Thu before subsiding. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A northerly swell event dominates the Western Atlantic northeast through east of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front has stalled from 31N61W to vicinity of the Virgin Islands. High pressure is building in behind the front. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are west of the front to 71W and north of about 30N, where seas are 14 to 19 ft in north swell. Elsewhere west of the front, fresh north to northeast winds exist west to near 75W along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in northeast swell east and north of the Bahamas. Mostly strong east to southeast winds are east of the frontal boundary to near 40W as seen in a recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. The ASCAT satellite data pass also reveals fresh to locally strong winds north of 15N and east of about 40W along with seas of 8 to 11 in northeast to east swell. Aside from the 1002 mb low north of the area near 34N66W as described above under the Special Features section, broad high pressure continues to be the main feature in control of the weather pattern in the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Only a small area of isolated showers and thunderstorms is noted from 21N to 26N between 42W-49W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic along with seas of 7 to 9 ft in northeast swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stalled front will weaken considerably through early Wed. Associated low pressure north of Bermuda will begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken today as it crosses into the area Atlantic waters through mid week, then gradually becomes stationary near 26N60W on Thu while dissipating. A narrow high pressure ridge will build southward over the Bahamas through Wed leading to diminishing winds W of the front. Large north to northeast well will gradually subside west of 70W through late Wed, but persist east of 70W through Fri as the swell moves eastward. Looking ahead, fresh to strong wind and rough seas will follow a new cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Thu, reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri morning, and from near 31N55W to central Hispaniola Sat morning. $$ Aguirre