000 AXNT20 KNHC 252321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Swell Event: Seas, generating by a deepening low pressure system located NW of Bermuda, are propagating into the Atlantic forecast waters building seas to 12 to 15 ft roughly N of 27N between 65W and 75W. This swell event will persist tonight and Tue, with seas building up to 17 ft tonight into Tue morning. The low pressure will begin to move slowly SE and weaken, crossing into the Atlantic forecast region Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 25N60W on Thu, then dissipating. The large NE swell W of 70W will persist through Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W through Tue, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida and a low pressure system over Texas and the eastern Gulf supports southerly winds reaching gale force over the north-central Gulf and rough to very rough seas. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds that are forecast to diminish below gale force tonight through late Wed ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast tonight. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border and continues southward to near 01N17W. The ITCZ extends from 01N17W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 15W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A ridge over the eastern U.S. extends southwestward across Florida and the eastern Gulf while a low pressure system dominates the western Gulf. This pattern supports fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the waters E of 95W, with winds reaching gale force across the north-central Gulf. Seas are 8 to 12 ft N of 21N between 85W and 96W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except across the offshore waters of W Florida, and W of the Yucatan peninsula where seas are generally 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, SE winds reaching gale force and rough to very rough seas are ongoing across the north-central Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving into the coastal plains of Texas. These winds and rough seas will diminish tonight through late Wed ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast tonight. The front will weaken as it moves southeastward through mid week, eventually moving southeast of the Gulf by late Thu. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas over mainly the south- central and southeast Gulf behind the front late Thu and Fri as high pressure builds in the wake of the front and low pressure deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong E to SE winds persist over the northwest Caribbean between high pressure just north of the area and a trough extending from Haiti across Jamaica into Honduras. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the Yucatan Channel. Light to gentle winds are noted over the central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are seen over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles on the SW periphery of a strong high pressure system that dominates most of the east and central Atlantic. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the NW Caribbean, with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are elsewhere across the basin. A cold front and a pre-frontal trough are bringing some showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. For the forecast, the fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas are forecast to persist over the northeast Caribbean through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system to enter the Gulf of Mexico. This next cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean Thu night then dissipate. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through early Thu before subsiding. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage Fri into Sat as high pressure builds north of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A swell event dominates the Western Atlantic NE of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front extends from Bermuda to eastern Dominican Republic. A pre-frontal trough runs from 29N61W to just N of Puerto Rico. A ridge is noted behind the front and extends southward across Florida and the Bahamas into Cuba. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a strong high pressure center of 1035 mb located W of the Azores near 39N36W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are in the wake of the front N of 25N with seas of 10 to 15 ft N and E of the Bahamas based on an altimeter pass and buoy observations. Similar wind speeds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are N of 20N under the influence of the aforementioned strong high pressure. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move eastward and reach from 31N62W to W Hispaniola by this evening, then weaken considerably as it moves E-SE across the Atlantic waters E of 60W and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. As previously mentioned, the associated low pressure located NW of Bermuda will begin to move slowly SE and weaken, crossing into the Atlantic forecast waters Tue, gradually becoming stationary near 25N60W on Thu, and then dissipating. Strong N to NE winds and large NE to N swell will continue to spread southward behind the front tonight before a narrow high pressure ridge builds southward into the Bahamas through Wed. Large NE swell will build southward, W of 70W, and persist through Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W through Tue, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds and large seas will persist across the far NE waters through Thu. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region Fri into Sat as high pressure builds across the region. $$ GR