000 AXNT20 KNHC 230450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall: A warm front with two embedded low pressure systems extending from 28N83W to 28N88W are gradually tracking eastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Abundant moisture associated with these lows is coupling with diffluent winds aloft to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Some of these thunderstorms can become severe, capable of producing heavy downpours with reduced visibility, frequent gale-force wind gusts and even waterspouts. These thunderstorms are over the Florida Keys, and southeastern Florida. Heavy downpours will produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across southern Florida through Saturday afternoon. Please refer to your local NWS Weather Forecast Offices at website: https://www.weather.gov for the latest advisories and warnings. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure over N of Biloxi, Mississippi has two related cold fronts across the northwestern and central Gulf of Mexico. These fronts will continue to push eastward over the next several days and merge into a single front. The cold front is anticipated to exit into the western Atlantic early Saturday morning. Near-gale to gale-force southerly winds ahead of this front are occuring from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N and between 75W and 80W. Seas in this area will build to 13 ft late tonight into Saturday morning. As the front moves farther eastward, these near-gale to gale- force winds will shift to north of 27N between 69W and 77W by Saturday night. Seas are going to peak at 16 ft. By Sunday morning, this areas of gale winds and high seas are expected to be north of 28N between 65W and 68W. Afterward, both winds and seas should gradually subside through Sunday evening as the front steadily weakens. Mariners should monitor all the above hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Gambia and southern Senegal, then reaches southwestward to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to 02S33W to 01S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04S to 06N along both the Monsoon Trough and the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about frequent gale gusts and heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf. There are two cold fronts across the northwestern and central Gulf of Mexico in association to a low that is located N of Biloxi, Mississippi. While a warm front with two embedded low pressure systems extends from 28N83W to 28N88W. Numerous strong to severe convection with frequent cloud to surface lightning is ongoing over the SE Gulf. While, recent scatterometer data revealed winds near-gale force within the strongest convection. Another area of scattered moderate convection is depicted N of 29N between 84.5W and 86W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds follow this second front while seas remain slight to moderate. In the far NE Gulf N of 27N E of 86W, seas are 8 to 10 ft. For the forecast, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are occurring over the extreme SE Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida, in association with a broad area of deep-layered low pressure moving E-NE across the north central and northeast Gulf tonight. This active system will move NE across Florida and SE U.S. overnight through Sat, with the thunderstorms shifting E into the Atlantic. A trailing cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico, and will reach from near Tallahassee, FL to near 22N91W Sat morning, and exit the basin to the SE by early Sat evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spill across the basin well behind the front tonight through Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf, ahead of the next cold front. Strong southerly winds will then shift to the central and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the new cold front enters the western Gulf Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the SW Gulf of Mexico. The front will slow and weaken mid-week over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds are occurring across the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel as deepening low pressure is moving E-NE across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure over the NW Atlantic extends a surface ridge southward to the northern Caribbean, thus sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, except for locally strong winds off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned broad low will move NE and across the SE U.S. tonight through Sat, with an attendant cold front reaching the Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean Sat afternoon. The front will then reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Sun evening, before stalling and dissipating on Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop again over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages across the NE and E Caribbean late Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about an upcoming Gale Warning. The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge being intersected by a cold front in the central Atlantic extending from 31N48W to 21N57W where it transitions to a shear line that continues to N of Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are behind of this front to the Bahamas offshore waters. NE to E winds of similar speed are found between the Cape Verde Islands and the coast of Africa. Rough seas in this region peak to 15 ft. Elsewhere, moderate NE to E winds prevail with moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered N of Bermuda will shift E-NE and strengthen through the weekend. Strong to gale-force SE to S winds W of 73W will shift slowly eastward through Sun, with gale winds expanding southward and into the NW Bahamas overnight. Low pressure across the NE Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the southeastern U.S. overnight through Sat. Strong to severe thunderstorms with frequent gusts to gale-force and frequent lightning are expected tonight through Sat offshore southern and central Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the Bahamas. The front will exit NE Florida Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N73W to central Cuba on Sun morning, from 31N66W to eastern Cuba by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across the Atlantic waters and adjacent NE Caribbean through Tue. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will follow the front Sun through Mon, with N swell then reaching the remaining waters E of 70W Tue through Wed. $$ KRV