000 AXNT20 KNHC 211608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall Event: A surface low pressure center and a cold front are forecast to form near the coast of Texas later today. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. Winds will expand in coverage ahead of the cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and central zones with the southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale NW to N winds and rough seas will follow this front. Additionally, widespread showers and strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, on Fri and Sat will impact southern Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba and nearby waters. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. In addition, please refer to bulletins and advisories from the local Weather Service Offices that are in the expected heavy rainfall impact areas for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 04N17W and continues southwestward to 01N32W. The ITCZ continues from 01N32W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of either side of the ITCZ, west of 32W. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also observed south of 06N and east of 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the special features section regarding the upcoming heavy rain event. The pressure gradient between the lower pressures over southeastern Texas and higher pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds west of 90W, with slight to moderate seas over these waters. Numerous moderate convection is observed across the northwestern Gulf to 90W, north of 27N. Elsewhere east of 90W, gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a surface low pressure center and a cold front are forecast to form near the coast of Texas later today. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. A trailing cold front will exit the basin through late Sat afternoon. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front, with fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. Widespread showers and strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected with the low center and the cold front. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf. These winds shift to the central and eastern Gulf Mon and Mon night as a cold front moves across the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic extends southward to over the extreme northern Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the central and southeastern Caribbean and also the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Slight to moderate seas are found over these Waters. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere over the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop in the northwest Caribbean and in the Yucatan Channel by early Fri as low pressure and its attendant cold front move across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will likely reach the Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean on Sat afternoon, then gradually weaken as it moves across the rest of the northwest Caribbean through the weekend, eventually stalling and dissipating. Fresh southeast winds will develop over most of the western Caribbean Mon and Mon night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the northeast coast of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the special features section about the upcoming western Atlantic Gale warning and heavy rain event. A cold front extends from near 31N54W southwestward to 23N61W, where it transitions to a stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed moving eastward ahead of the front to 44W and north of 25N. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are noted in a recent scatterometer pass ahead of the front to 49W, mainly north of 25N. Moderate seas are noted over these waters. Broad high pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic west of the front, along with moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas. A strong 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues to be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 17N and east of 35W. Rough seas are found over these waters. Moderate trades and moderate seas are observed across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, by Fri morning, the northern part of the aforementioned front will shift east of the area, while the southern part will remain nearly stationary along the northern coast of Hispaniola. The front will dissipate east of the area on Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly move eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop east of Florida as a low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night into Sat. These winds will expand in coverage ahead the trailing cold front over the western waters. The front will reach from near 31N69W to the Windward Passage by late Sun night, and from near 31N64W to near the Virgin Islands by late Mon night. Gale conditions are expected over most of the northern and central zones with the southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale force northeast winds and rough seas will follow this front. $$ Nepaul