000
AXNT20 KNHC 202304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface low pressure center and a cold front are forecast to
form near the coast of Texas late on Thursday. The weather system
will move rapidly through the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The 
forecast for Friday and for Saturday consists of widespread heavy 
rainfall that will cover the areas from the Bahamas to Cuba, in 
the Straits of Florida, and in the southern sections of Florida.

Please, refer to bulletins and advisories from the local Weather
Services that are in these areas, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W to the Equator at 30W. The ITCZ
is south of the Equator at this time. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along and N of the monsoon trough to 08N. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure center is off the coast of SE Louisiana.
Broad gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds associated with this
high encompass the Gulf of Mexico, except for just offshore the NW
Yucatan coast, where fresh NE winds are occurring. Deep layer
moisture in the NW Gulf of Mexico is leading to scattered moderate
convection within about 120 nm of the U.S. Mexico border. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will quickly shift eastward 
through Thu as a low pressure system develops near the coast of 
Texas. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward across 
the northern Gulf and to over the western Florida panhandle and 
the southeastern U.S. Fri and Fri night, pushing a cold front 
across the basin. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are 
forecast ahead of the front, with fresh to strong northerly winds 
behind it. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with 
the low center and attendant cold front. High pressure in its wake
will also quickly shift eastward from late Sat night through Sun 
night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop 
over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades and moderate seas are ongoing in the south-central
and southeast Caribbean as well as through the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will 
continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then 
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. Moderate to fresh
trades are expected elsewhere over the east and central Caribbean
while gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the NW 
Caribbean. By early Fri morning, the forecast calls for fresh to 
strong SE to S winds across the NW Caribbean and in the Yucatan 
Channel as a low pressure and attendant cold front move across the
Gulf of Mexico. This front will likely reach the Yucatan Channel 
and the far NW Caribbean on Sat afternoon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to the northern coast of
Hispaniola. Along and within 60 nm either side of the front N of
24N, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in present.
Away from convection, winds are moderate or less for waters W of
50W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. to the east, high pressure centered
well NE of the area is dominating, bringing widespread fresh
trades, with strong NE winds from 20N to 30N E of 35W. In the
strong winds, seas are 8 to 10 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere
in the central and eastern Tropical Atlantic. 

For the forecast, weak low pressure will form along the cold front
near 30N50W tonight, then move N and E of the area Thu. By Fri 
morning, the northern part of the front will shift E of the area, 
while the southern part will remain nearly stationary along the 
northern coast of Hispaniola. The front will dissipate E of the 
area on Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly 
move eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong 
southerly winds to develop E of Florida as a low pressure tracks 
northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland the southeastern 
U.S. Fri night and Sat. These winds will expand in coverage ahead 
of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western 
waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. 
Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and 
central zones with the southerly winds Fri and Sat. Strong to near
gale northwest to north winds and rough seas will follow in 
behind the front. 

$$
Konarik