000 AXNT20 KNHC 191759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic Ocean cold front is passing through 31N71W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond the Straits of Florida. Expect near gale-force to gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, from 29N northward from the cold front westward to 77W. Elsewhere from the cold front westward: strong to near gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, from the Bahamas northward. Expect also from 29N northward between the cold front and 65W: near gale-force to gale-force, and rough seas. Elsewhere from 27N northward between the cold front and the line 31N60W 27N70W: strong S to SW winds and rough seas. The gale-force winds are forecast to slow down by Tuesday night, in about 12 hours or so. Mostly fresh to moderate broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, and moderate seas, are elsewhere from 60W westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 25N northward between 64W and 73W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate to locally strong, are elsewhere from 21N northward from 60W westward. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N18W and 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W, to the Equator along 36W, to 02S42W, and to the Equator along 49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to the coast of the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, curving into the SW Gulf of Mexico in the northern Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. High level moisture is being pushed to 85W in the Gulf of Mexico, by the upper level westerly wind flow from Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong precipitation is from 90W westward. The SPECIAL FEATURES gale-force wind warning that is in the Atlantic Ocean is associated with the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds are to the north of the cold front. Moderate NE winds are to the south of the cold front, in the SW corner of the area. Rough seas are from 22N to 26N. Moderate seas are elsewhere. The SPECIAL FEATURES gale-force wind warning is associated with the cold front. A cold front extending across the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico will exit the Gulf region later this morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind the front will gradually diminish this afternoon. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near the Texas coast late on Thu, then track east-northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri pushing a cold front across the basin. The low is expected to move inland northern Florida late on Fri. This next frontal system will bring increasing winds and seas across the Gulf waters, as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad moderate to fresh surface cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are from 14N southward between 72W and 76W off the coast of Colombia. Moderate seas are elsewhere from Jamaica southward from 80W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front will push southward across the northwest Caribbean today, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night while decreasing in coverage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for today, in the SW North Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge passes through a 37N32W 1026 mb high pressure center, to 31N42W 28754W, to 17N64W in the NE Caribbean Sea. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is between 40W and 50W from 20N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Moderate to rough seas are within 360 nm to 450 nm on either side of 16N24W 14N38W 11N60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 11N to 27N between 22W and 46W. Mostly fresh to some moderate winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extending from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas this afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are ahead and behind the front, with gale force winds over the waters north of 27N. The gale force winds behind the front end this morning while those east of the front end late this afternoon. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the front. Weak low pressure may form along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front reaching northern Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over northern Florida, and to north of the area Sat and Sat night. These winds will expand in coverage as they shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters. $$ mt/gr