000 AXNT20 KNHC 172301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will come off the coast of NE Florida by early Mon. The front will reach from 31N74W to the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Mon evening. Winds are forecast to reach gale force over the NE Florida offshore waters Mon night and seas will build to 12 ft. The front will continue to slide eastward and weaken NE of Hispaniola Tue evening before exiting the region on Thu night. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 02N between 20W-40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northern portion of the basin from 30N83W to 29N95W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the front mainly N of 27N. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin, with strongest winds near the convection. Seas range between 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the front along the coast of Texas will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico tonight, from Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico Mon morning, and exit the basin on Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front tonight through Tue morning. Light density smoke, originating from widespread fire activity in Mexico, dominates much of the Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The associated pressure gradient between a broad ridge N of the region and low pressure over NW Colombia continue to support fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central basin with the strongest winds happening over the south-central and southeast Caribbean. Seas in these regions are 5-7 ft, except for 8 to 10 ft off Colombia. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where winds are light to gentle. Seas in the NW basin are slight to moderate. For the forecast, high pressure ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the east and central Caribbean through Tue. Then, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front will sink into the NW Caribbean Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The entire subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 30N35W. In the periphery of the high, moderate to fresh winds prevail, with seas to 9 ft. This area covers E of 30W and S of 20N. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off NE Florida tonight, and reach from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale- force Mon night into Tue, affecting mainly the waters N of 27N. The front will move E of the area on Thu. A ridge will build in its wake. $$ ERA