000 AXNT20 KNHC 151803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event... Large NW swell has been moving through the central Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights have been ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 20N between 30W and 50W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow from 18 hours ago has given way to moderate or slower winds in the same area. This swell will subside gradually, and it will move northeastward today. The sea heights are expected to decrease in height to less than 12 feet tonight. ...South Central Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... Currently: strong to near gale-force NE winds are and have been from 15N southward between 69W and 78W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to become comparatively tighter tonight. Gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, will affect the areas that are from 11N to 12N between 74W and 75W, tonight. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09N14W, to the Equator along 21W. The ITCZ continues to 03S13W, 02S40W 02S44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the line 02N50W-the Equator along 40W, 01S29W, to the ITCZ. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving through Texas, from the eastern sections of the state to the Texas Big Bend and West Texas. Some areas of low clouds, rainshowers, haze, and lower visibilities, are and have been in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states, from the Florida Big Bend to the Deep South of Texas. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico toward the northeast. Moderate to rough seas are from 27N southward between 90W and 94W. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the Gulf waters. Some exceptions are from slight seas off the coast of Mexico near 20N, and off the coast of the Tampa Florida metropolitan area. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in much of the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for gentle winds within 150 nm of the Florida west coast. The Bermuda high will slide eastward across the Atlantic through the weekend, yet maintain a lingering ridge westward over the western Atlantic and into the central Gulf through Sun. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast over the majority of the basin through today. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters today and slide eastward along 29N. A stronger cold front will move across the area late this weekend into early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning, that is affecting the coastal waters of Colombia. Strong NE to E winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the NW corner of the area from 19N southward from 84W westward. Rough seas in general are from 14N southward between 74W and 80W. Moderate seas cover the Caribbean Sea from Central America eastward, and from 20N northward in the NW corner of the area. Slight seas are in the rest of the area. High pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will slide eastward across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic over the weekend. The lingering ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and portions of the southeast Caribbean through Tue. Winds off Colombia will briefly pulse to gale-force tonight. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Significant Swell event. A surface trough passes through 31N34W 28N40W 23N50W 20N64W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 240 nm to 360 nm on either side of the surface trough, and elsewhere from 20N to 25N between 60W and 80W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N66W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the northwest of the 31N34W 20N64W surface trough. Fresh NE winds are: from 13N to 23N from 27W eastward; from 15N southward between 30W and 60W; and from the NE Caribbean Sea islands to 24N between 56W and 65W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will slide eastward and into the eastern Atlantic through the weekend. A broad associated ridge will persist westward across the area through most of the forecast period. Rough seas in northerly swell dominating E of 60W will gradually subside from W to E today. A weak cold front will move into the NW waters Sat. A stronger cold front will enter the offshore waters of NE Florida on Mon morning. A tightening pressure gradient behind the front will support fresh to strong NW to N winds late Mon into Tue off NE Florida and over the western Atlantic, north of 28N. Conditions will improve by midweek. $$ mt/ss