000 AXNT20 KNHC 150558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell is propagating across the central Atlantic. Seas of 12 to 16 ft along with moderate to fresh W to NW winds are generally north of 26N between 35W and 52W. As this swell gradually subsides and retreats northeastward tonight through Friday, seas in this area are expected to drop below 12 ft by Friday evening. SW Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb Colombian Low and a 1022 mb Bermuda High will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south-central Caribbean and near the ABC Islands through this weekend. Local effects created by the mountain peaks nearby will further enhance pressure gradient to support 30 to 40 kt NE to E winds off the coast near Barranquilla during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Fri night. Seas under these winds will peak between 10 and 12 ft. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then reaches southward to 05N16W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 05N16W to beyond 00S22W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 65 nm along either side of the ITCZ. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high over the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Enhanced by cooler nighttime temperatures, moist southeasterly winds are inducing patchy fog across the northwestern and north-central Gulf. Visibility in these areas can be reduced to as low as 2 nm. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the northwestern and south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh southeasterly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf over the next few days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast over the majority of the Gulf through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula during the nighttime and early morning hours through Sun night. A weak cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf Fri and then slide eastward. A stronger cold front will move across the area late this weekend into early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind this second front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N71W continues to support a fair trade-wind pattern across the entire Caribbean Sea. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are seen at the central basin, Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will gradually shift eastward, while supporting fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean the next several days. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend and then decrease slightly early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about Significant Swell. A surface trough stretches southwestward from the central Atlantic at 31N35W to 22N52W, then continues westward as a weak shear line to near the southeast Bahamas. Widely scattered showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of the trough, while patchy showers are seen up to 60 nm north of the shear line. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the Significant Swell mentioned in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SE to W to NW winds and seas at 9 to 11 ft in moderate to large NW swell exist north of 18N between 30W 60W. Farther southwest, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found from 20N to 25N between 60W and the Bahamas. To the north, a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N71W is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells are present north of 25N between 60W and the Georgia- Florida east coast. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are evident north of 21N between the Africa coast and 30W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell dominate from 08N to 21N between the central Africa coast and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 18N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed moderate to large swells are found. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will persist across the western Atlantic during the next few days. Very rough to high seas east of 52W will gradually subside from west to east through Fri. The Bermuda High is anticipated to shift eastward this weekend, allowing a cold front to move off the southeast US coast early next week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow behind this front off northeastern Florida and over the western Atlantic, north of 28N. As the front pushes further eastward into the central Atlantic, conditions will improve by midweek. $$ Chan