000
AXNT20 KNHC 141653
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 14  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are generally north of 25N 
between 35W and 59W. This area of large swell will subside and 
decrease in areal extent as it propagates to the northeast of 
the discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and
Puerto Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across 
the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of 
Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 
40 kt NE to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and 
Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are 
likely around 11 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force 
tonight and Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and 
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas 
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea 
near 09N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 03S39W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 00N between 
21W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge extends to the Gulf of Mexico from a 1021 mb 
high that is centered over western Atlantic. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and a trough over 
Mexico is supporting moderate winds over the Gulf waters W of 
86W including the Yucatan Channel. Seas in with this winds are 3 
to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are present east of 86W, with 
seas 1 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf 
waters through into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will 
increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the 
basin today through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will 
pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and 
early morning hours due to local effects. A weak cold front will 
enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and slide eastward, while a 
stronger cold front will move across the area late this weekend 
into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale 
Warning. 

Aside from the gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to strong 
winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to 
localized strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-11 
ft range in the south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge centered north of 
the area will shift eastward over the next several days. The 
area of high pressure will support fresh to strong winds across 
the south- central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to 
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft 
during the strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally 
strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of 
Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A dissipating cold front extends from 31N25W to 23N45W, then it 
becomes stationary front from 23N45W to 22N54W. A surface trough 
extends from the stationary front to north of the Hispaniola. 
Fresh to strong W to NW winds are observed N of 29N between 38W 
and 65W. Behind the front a 1021 mb high pressure is center near 
27N66W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are 
evident across the tropical Atlantic south of 18N. Light to 
gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas in excess of 8 
ft are noted north of 18N between 32W and 65W, impacting the 
Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands. Moderate seas are 
noted elsewhere over the subtropical Atlantic waters north of 
18N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad high pressure will persist 
across the area during the next several days. The area of high 
pressure will shift eastward this weekend enabling a cold front 
to move into the NW waters early next week. Rough to very rough 
seas E of 60W will gradually subside from W to E through Fri.

$$
KRV