000 AXNT20 KNHC 140900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are generally north of 25N between 37W and 60W. This area of large swell will subside and decrease in areal extent as it propagates to the northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and Puerto Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt NE to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 11 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Fri night. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 03S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 00N between 23W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a trough over the Yucatan peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the Yucatan peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf waters W of 90W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center with gentle winds elsewhere E of 90W. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range north of the Yucatan peninsula, 2-3 ft W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin today through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold front may move into the N Gulf the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Aside from the gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W with gentle to moderate winds W of 80W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 82W. Seas of 4-6 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras, with 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will shift eastward the end of the week into the weekend. The area of high pressure will support fresh to strong winds across the south- central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale- force tonight and Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell in the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N26W to 23N45W. Fresh to strong W winds are observed N of 29N behind the front to 60W. The front bisects the subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 26N27W and a 1021 mb high pressure center near 27N66W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident south of the ridge across the tropical Atlantic south of 18N. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are noted north of 18N between 35W and 65W, impacting the Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere over the subtropical Atlantic waters north of 18N. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across the area the next few days. The area of high pressure will shift eastward this weekend enabling a cold front to move into the NW waters early next week. Rough to very rough seas E of 62W will gradually subside from W to E through Fri. $$ AL