000 AXNT20 KNHC 140611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are generally north of 24N between 40W and 65W. This area of large swell will subside and decrease in areal extent as it propagates to the northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and Puerto Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt NE to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 10 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night through Fri night. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 10.50N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 05S35W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern continues over the Gulf of Mexico, between 1019 mb high pressure in the Big Bend area of Florida in the northeast Gulf, and a weak trough over the western Yucatan peninsula. This pattern is supporting light to gentle SE breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas, except for moderate to fresh wind near Yucatan as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin tonight through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold front may move into the N Gulf by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. A scatterometer satellite pass from earlier in the evening showed near-gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. This will likely increase to minimal gale force later this morning due to local drainage effects. Fresh to strong trade winds persist across the south-central Caribbean of 15N, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds are also noted off Honduras with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. No significant weather is noted. For the forecast, broad high pressure centered north of the area will shift eastward the end of the week into the weekend. The area of high pressure will support fresh to strong winds across the south- central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale- force at night through Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell in the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N28W to 22N55W, then is a dissipating stationary front to north of the Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong W winds are observed behind the front to 60W north of 29N. Front bisects the subtropical ridge, anchored by two 1021 mb high pressure centers near 26N60W and 24N30W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident south of the ridge across the tropical Atlantic south of 18N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are noted north of 16N between 40W and 65W, impacting the Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere over the subtropical Atlantic waters north of 18N. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across the area the next few days. The area of high pressure will shift eastward this weekend enabling a cold front to move into the NW waters early nest week. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N and E of 60W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will gradually subside from W to E through the end of the week. . $$ Christensen