000
AXNT20 KNHC 131612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 19 ft are currently north of a 
line from 30N61W to 23N53W to 30N42W. The area of 12 ft seas will 
sweep eastward across the waters north of 23N between 35W and 65W 
through mid-week, then diminish in areal extent and shift 
northeast of the discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure over 
northern Colombia and a 1022 mb high pressure northeast of the 
Bahamas is supporting strong to near gale-force NE to E winds 
across the south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of
Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 
35 kt NE to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and 
Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are 
likely around 12 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force each
night through Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and 
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 01S35W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south
of 03N and east of 35W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail west of 90W, with light 
to gentle E to SE winds east of 90W. Slight seas or less are found
across the entire basin. 

For the forecast, ridging will persist across the Gulf waters 
through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds 
will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the
basin tonight through Fri night. Due to local effects, fresh to 
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan 
Peninsula each night and early morning hours. A cold front may 
move into the NW Gulf by the end of the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale 
Warning. 

Aside from the near-gale to gale-force winds, fresh to strong E 
winds and rough seas are observed over the south-central Caribbean
in a recent scatterometer pass. Elsewhere east of 80W, moderate 
to fresh E winds and seas are present, while gentle to moderate E 
winds and slight seas are noted west of 80W.

For the forecast, the 1022 mb high pressure system centered north
of the Greater Antilles will slide eastward over the next few 
days. This ridge will sustain fresh to strong winds across the 
south-central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-
force at night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong 
near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of 
Hispaniola mid-week through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N34W to 20N54W and continues as a 
stationary front to near Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Fresh 
to strong W winds are observed behind the front to 63W north of 
29N. High pressure is centered near 27N69W west of the front with 
light to gentle anticyclonic winds in the vicinity of the high 
center. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are elsewhere west of the
cold front. Ahead of the front, moderate SW winds are observed 
within 50 nm north of 29N with gentle or less winds extending to 
another high pressure centered near 22N30W. Moderate NE winds 
prevail south of 18N. Aside from the area of seas 12 ft or 
greater, rough seas cover the waters north of 22N between 55W and
70W, behind the front. Across the remainder of the basin, 
moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, broad ridging will prevail through 
the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds north of 29N and east 
of 60W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will 
gradually subside from west to east through the end of the week. 

$$ 
Nepaul