000 AXNT20 KNHC 130433 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central Atlantic waters extending from a gale centered off the Canadian Maritimes. Seas 12 to 18 ft will sweep eastward across the waters north of 25N between 35W and 65W through mid week, then will diminish in areal extent and shift northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure northeast of the Bahamas is supporting strong to gale-force winds across the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 13 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale force each night through Fri night. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 04S35W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are observed from 01N to 03N between 18W and 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Buoy observations show generally light to gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas across the basin this evening, although moderate NW winds are likely off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula associated with a weak trough over the coast. No significant weather is evident at this time. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Wed morning, then winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf by the end of the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Trade winds remain active across the southern Caribbean between 1007 mb low pressure over northwest Colombia, and 1022 mb high pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas. A ship observation off the Guajira peninsula of Colombia indicate near- gale NW winds. This is a good indication winds are reaching at least minimal gale strength farther to the southwest off the coast of Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla. An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas of 8 to 9 ft off Santa Marta, Colombia, and seas to 10 ft are likely currently in the area of gale force winds. Fresh to strong winds are active elsewhere over the south- central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are likely ongoing over the Windward Passage, and moderate to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere across the basin with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for gentle breezes over the northwest Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola mid week through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell in the western and central Atlantic. The tail end of a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N39W 20N62W, in between two 1021 mb high pressure areas centered near 28N71W and 21N30W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds follow the front north of 29N as far west as 65W. Fresh NE winds are also evident between Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas, including the entrances to the Windward Passage. In addition to the swell described in the Special Features section, combined seas of 8 to 12 ft primarily in NW swell also follow the front east of 70W. Farther east, a second front extends from near Madeira to 28N23W. Fresh SW winds are evident just ahead of this front, and 8 to 9 ft combined seas follow the front in NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary just north of the Greater Antilles, where it will dissipate by Thu. Fresh to strong winds north of 29N and east of 65W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will accompany the front, gradually subsiding from west to east through the end of the week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate the Atlantic the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. $$ Christensen