000 AXNT20 KNHC 122250 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central Atlantic waters extending from a storm-force low near Atlantic Canada. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of a line from 31N68.5W to 25N66W to 30N46W, currently peaking around 19 ft. The swath of combined seas in excess of 12 ft could reach as far south as 24N between 43W and 63W on Wed, then will diminish in areal extent and shift northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1022 mb high pressure near 29N72W is supporting strong to gale-force winds across the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 13 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale force each night through Fri night. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 03S38W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are observed from 04S to 05N between the west coast of Africa and 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Quiet weather continues across the Gulf of Mexico supported by surface high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. and the western Atlantic. No organized shower activity is noted across the region and light to gentle east to southeast winds are occurring across the entire Gulf. Consequently, seas are generally low in the 2-4 ft range, highest over the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Wed morning, then winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf by the end of the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. No significant shower activity is occurring across the Caribbean region, and the quiet weather is supported by abundant dry air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. Besides for the gale-force winds mentioned above, fresh to strong trade winds are occurring over the south-central Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the north of the area and low pressure over Colombia. Seas are highest in the gale warning area, but are moderate elsewhere across the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, increasing and pulsing to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras, near the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola mid week through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell in the western and central Atlantic. The tail end of a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N41W and extends southwestward to just north of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are near the front and north of 28.5N between 38W and 64.5W. Seas are very rough over a large portion of the subtropical central and western Atlantic in northerly swell, originating from a storm-force low near Atlantic Canada. The remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet supported by surface high pressure and dry air aloft. Seas are rough north of 27N between 20W and 45W due to swell from another low north of the region. Otherwise, winds and seas are moderate elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front, will continue to move eastward across the forecast waters through Wed while becoming stationary just N of the Greater Antilles. The front is forecast to dissipate over the same area by Thu. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N and E of 65W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will continue to accompany the front, gradually subsiding from W to E through the end of the week. High pressure will dominate the Atlantic for the end of the week through the upcoming weekend. $$ KRV