000 AXNT20 KNHC 121642 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central Atlantic waters extending from a storm-force low near Atlantic Canada. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of a line from 31N68W to 26N66W to 30N48W, currently peaking around 19 ft. The swath of combined seas in excess of 12 ft could reach as far south as 24N between 35W and 60W on Wed, then will diminish in areal extent and shift northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1023 mb high pressure off the coast of NE Florida is supporting strong to gale-force winds across the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 12 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale force each night through Fri night. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 04S37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 02S to 07N between 06W and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Quiet weather continues across the Gulf of Mexico supported by surface high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. and the western Atlantic. No organized shower activity is noted across the region and light east to southeast winds are occurring across the entire Gulf. Consequently, seas are generally low in the 2-4 ft range, highest over the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Wed, then winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin Thu through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. No significant shower activity is occurring across the Caribbean region today, and the quiet weather is supported by abundant dry air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. Besides for the gale-force winds mentioned above, fresh to strong trade winds are occurring over the south-central Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the north of the area and low pressure over Colombia. Seas are highest in the gale warning area, but are moderate elsewhere across the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, increasing to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the approach to the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell in the western and central Atlantic. The tail end of a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N 44W and extends southwestward to eastern Cuba. A narrow band of showers accompanies the front. Fresh to strong westerlies winds are near the front and on the south side of a strong low pressure system north of 28N between 35W and 65W. Seas are very rough over a large portion of the subtropical central and western Atlantic in northerly swell, originating from a storm-force low near Atlantic Canada. The remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet supported by surface high pressure and dry air aloft. Seas are rough north of 27N between 20W and 45W due to swell from another low north of the region. Otherwise, winds and seas are moderate elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will continue to move eastward across the forecast waters through Wed while becoming stationary just N of the Greater Antilles. The front is forecast to dissipate over the same area on Thu. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front today, mainly north of 27N. Winds will diminish from west to east into mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell. $$ Cangialosi