000 AXNT20 KNHC 120450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Several recent altimeter satellite passes over the past several hours indicated wave heights ranging from 12 to 18 ft from 29N to 31N between 60W and 75W. These large combined seas are primarily due to NW swell related to deep 984 mb low pressure over Nova Scotia. The swath of combined seas in excess of 12 ft will reach as far south as 25N between 45W and 65W by late Tue, between 35W and 60W north of 25N by late Wed, then will diminish in areal extent and shift northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and 1024 mb high pressure over the southeastern United States is supporting strong to near-gale force winds across much of the south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 40 kt winds within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla. These gale force winds were confirmed by a 0240 UTC scatterometer satellite pass. Associated seas are likely 10 ft currently, but will build to at least 12 ft overnight. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over the coast of Senegal near 11N15W to 00N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ near 05N37W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 04N between 12W and 19W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends the northern Gulf, anchored by 1024 mb high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. A surface trough reaches from the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula into the central Gulf. A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh winds off the Yucatan coast associated with the trough. Combined seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No major areas of fog/haze or showers/thunderstorms are evident at this time. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Wed, then winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the west-central Gulf Thu through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale Warning. A stationary front reaches from central Cuba to Cozumel, Mexico. Buoy and scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate winds elsewhere, except for fresh N to NE winds in the Windward Passage. As described above in the Special Features section, 8 to 10 ft seas are likely off Colombia where the gale force winds are ongoing. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the south- central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft over the remainder of the basin. No major convection is evident across the basin at this time. For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about Significant Swells. A cold front extends from 31N55W to central Cuba. Another cold front reaches southwestward from the Azores across 31N31W to near 28N35W. Farther west, 1021 mb high pressure center is north of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22N26W. Other than the Significant Swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft are present behind the first cold front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are found near the second cold front. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move eastward across the forecast waters through Wed while becoming stationary just N of the Greater Antilles. The front is forecast to dissipate over the same area on Thu. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 27N. Winds will diminish from west to east into mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell. $$ Christensen