676 AXNT20 KNHC 110901 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period N swell produced by earlier storm-force winds associated with a low at the north-central Atlantic continue to propagate south of 31N. Seas are peaking in the 12 to 15 ft range north of 28N between 40W and 55W. The 12 ft seas south of 31N with this swell will start to subside this morning, and decrease below 12 ft by this evening. A developing storm system in the NW Atlantic has generated a large NW swell over the western Atlantic. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will pass S of 31N this morning. Seas north of 27N between 57W and 74W will increase steadily and reach 12 to 20 ft by this evening. These high to very high seas will then shift southeastward to near 25N between 50W and 70W Tuesday morning, and to near 23N between 40W and 62W Wednesday morning. After midweek, these seas will gradually subside while shifting eastward. Seas associated with this swell will subside below 12 ft S of 31N by late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will build N of the area in the wake of the cold front in the western Atlantic today. The pressure gradient will tighten between this area of building high pressure and low pressure over Colombia, supporting strong to near- gale NE winds off the northwestern Colombia coast most of this week. These winds will pulse to gale- force during the nighttime and early morning hours through Wednesday morning. Seas will peak between 10 and 12 ft during the period of gale force winds. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02S34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 20W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds W of 90W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range near the Yucatan Channel, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through the week. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming gale warning. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere S of 15N. N of 15N, gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the south central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will build N of the area, supporting fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale- force tonight and Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a significant swell event. A cold front extends from 31N65W to W Cuba. Fresh to strong winds prevail N of 28N within 210 nm east of the front, and N of 28N W of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of the front. E of the front, a 1018 mb high pressure center is near 25N57W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Farther east, a trough extends from 31N39W to 26N49W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to strong winds are N of 30N within 120 nm east of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 29N80W to 25N57W to 30N32W. Seas greater than 8 ft are also found N of 22N and E of 29W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the northern portion of the front will continue moving to the east of the region Tue, leaving a weakening front extending to the Windward Passage by early Tue. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 24N, through the early part of the week. Winds will diminish from west to east into mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell. $$ AL