000 AXNT20 KNHC 100005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large, long-period N swell produced by gale to strong-gale winds associated with a 996 mb low pressure at the north-central Atlantic will move southward tonight through Sunday. This swell is going to create seas of 12 to 14 ft in the central Atlantic north of 27N between 36W and 57W from Sunday morning through late Monday morning. By Monday morning, a deep frontal low pressure system is expected to exit into the northwestern Atlantic near Nova Scotia. This system is forecast to produce even larger, long- period NW swell toward the western Atlantic, then spread into the central Atlantic by Wednesday. Anticipate seas to build steadily and reach 12 to 19 ft north of 27N between 53W and 72W by late Monday afternoon. These very rough to high seas will shift southeastward to north of 25N between 42W and 64W by Wednesday morning. Mariners need to monitor this developing situation and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to near 02N17W where the ITCZ continues westward to 01S30W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 20W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 09S between 11W and 29W, and from 02N to 04S W of 26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Cape San Blas, Florida to Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed by moderate to fresh N to NW winds over the northern Gulf offshore waters and fresh to strong N winds S of 26N over the SW basin. Seas are moderate over the NE Gulf and rough with a peak of 10 ft S of 27N in the eastern half of the Gulf. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front and over the offshore waters between the Florida Big Bend and and Tampa Bay. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Port Charlotte, Florida to Merida, Mexico by Sun morning before stalling and dissipating over the Yucatan Channel Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Conditions will improve early next week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A modest 1018 mb high north of Puerto Rico near 25N64W continues to sustain a trade-wind pattern for the entire basin. Over the eastern and central Caribbean, winds are moderate to fresh, except fresh to strong over the south-central offshores. Fresh to strong easterly winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide, except Colombia where seas are 7-8 ft. For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through midweek, reaching near-gale off Colombia Mon night. Fresh to locally strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern Caribbean through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Otheriwse, a weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an upcoming Significant Swell Event for the western and central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N55W to 29N65W where it transitions to a stationary front to 29N69W and then into a warm front to 31N74W. South of the frontal boundary, a 1018 mb center of high pressure is centered near 25N64W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing off the NE coast of Florida associated with an approaching cold front, currently over the Gulf of Mexico. The gradient between the ridge and the approching front is supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas with 9 ft peak over the NW offshore waters N of 27N. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in the Great Bahama Bank and N of Hispaniola while light to gentle variable winds are ongoing elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic waters. Surface ridging extending from a 1023 mb high SW of the Azores Islands, covers the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 12N and E of 30N. Also, moderate to fresh southerly winds are ongoing in the central subtropical waters N of 25N between 41W and 49W. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move to the east of the area through tonight. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night. The portion of the front north of 22N will continue to the east of the region Tue, leaving a weakening stationary front extending to the Windward Passage by early Tue. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 24N, through the early part of the week. Winds will diminish from west to east into mid week as high pressure builds over the western Gulf in the wake of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell. $$ Ramos