000 AXNT20 KNHC 071045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 07 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W and to 02N289. The ITCZ is not defined at this time. Numerous moderate to strong convection exists south of the trough and east of 19W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 21W-26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Apalachicola Florida southwestward to 29N90W, where it transitions to a stationary front northwestward to inland central Louisiana. A trough extends from northeast Florida southwestward to near 27N87W. Another trough extends from near 26N89W south to inland the Yucatan Peninsula. No significant convection is associated with these features. A weak pressure gradient over the area is supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds along with slight seas west of 90W, and light and variable winds also with slight seas east of 90W per latest scatterometer and buoy and altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will develop over the western half of the Gulf today ahead of a cold front that is forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat evening, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, before exiting the area Sun night while weakening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Conditions diminish Mon and Mon night as high pressure from the Atlantic builds in over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad strong high pressure is centered over the north-central Atlantic where a 1035 mb high center is analyzed at 34N38W. A broad ridge extends from it to just north of the basin. The gradient between this high and lower pressure in Colombia is is sustaining fresh to strong northeast to east from 11N to 13N between 64W and 76W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh southeast winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas over the basin are of slight to moderate ranges, with peak seas to 7 ft just offshore northwest Colombia. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area interacting with lower pressure in Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the southeastern Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night tonight and are generally expected to continue through Sat night. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun, Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A rather vigorous upper-level trough is just east of Florida. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast multilayer clouds west of about 69W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with frequent lightning are increasing within 45 nm either side of a line from 31N76W to 27N90W. This activity is moving east- northeast at about 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere between 72W-79W. Upper-level cyclonic flow is present to the north of 22N and between 47W and 62W while broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong high pressure of 1035 mb is centered in the north-central Atlantic near 34N38W. A cold front extends from near 31N16W, west-southwestward to 28N26W and northwestward to near 30N40W. Strong surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward between 34W and 56W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 34W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the areas that are bounded by the line 14N16W 03N35W, to the Equator along 47W, and the line 17N60W 20N49W 20N36W, to the coast of Africa along 22N. Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are from 22N northward between 57W and 70W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 22N northward between 40W and 70W. Moderate to rough seas are from 17N to 30N from 24W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds north of 29N and west of 70W will diminish today as a cold front approaches from the W. The front will move across the northern waters through Sat, exiting the forecast waters by early Sat evening. A stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night, reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and from near 27N55W to 24N64W and stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by late Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are likely to precede this front. High pressure will build in the wake of this front. $$ Aguirre