000
AXNT20 KNHC 061616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1615 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Guinea near 10N14W
and continues southwestward to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 
04N25W to 01S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along 
the ITCZ from 09S to 05N west of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from near Keaton Beach, Florida to 
24N92W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the 
trough axis to 22N, east of 88W. A weak pressure gradient across 
the basin is supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight 
seas west of 90W, while gentle to moderate winds from the S and W 
and slight seas are found across the basin east of 90W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will develop over 
the western half of the Gulf tonight into Thu ahead of the next 
cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The
front will reach from the Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, 
Mexico late on Sat, from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan 
Peninsula on Sun, then exit the Gulf region Sun night. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in 
the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad strong high pressure centered over the north-central 
Atlantic extends a ridge to just north of the basin and supports 
the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds off the coast of
Colombia and SE winds of the same magnitude over the Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere in 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas basin-wide are slight to 
moderate, with peak seas at 7 to 8 ft in the south-central 
portion of the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with 
the Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E 
winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night and in 
the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade 
winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at 
night tonight and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed off the
coast of Florida to 74W, north of 24N ahead of a surface boundary
near the Florida-Georgia Bend. The presence of this boundary and 
a surface ridge to the west supports moderate to fresh SE to S 
winds and moderate seas to 8 ft west of 65W. East of 65W, a broad 
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are observed in a recent 
scatterometer pass from 23N to 31N to 38W with rough seas in NE to
E swell. Further east across the subtropical Atlantic north of 
20N, surface ridging dominates with moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds and moderate seas. Over the remainder of the basin south of 
20N, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 
rough seas across the offshore waters north of 20N and east of 70W
will gradually decrease through late today. Winds and seas will 
increase off NE Florida this morning ahead of the next cold front 
forecast to move off the coast of Florida during the evening. The 
front will then move eastward across the far northern waters 
through Sat, and move E of the area Sun. A second cold front will 
come off the coast of NE Florida Sat night and extend from near 
Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night.

$$
Nepaul