000 AXNT20 KNHC 051724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the north Gulf, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity that is affecting mainly the waters N of 26N and E of 94W. A couple of buoy observations over the NE Gulf are reporting NE winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. NWS Weather Forecast Offices from SE Louisiana to Tallahassee have issued a Gale Warning for wind gusts to gale force until 3 pm CST. A recent scatterometer pass over the NE Gulf indicate the presence of strong to gale force southerly winds within the convective activity. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W, then continues southwestward to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 01S33W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 05N between 20W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 05.5N to 07N between 12W and 16W, within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 36W and 40W, and near 00N50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the north Gulf, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details. Outside of the Gale Warning area, the pressure gradient between lower pressure over the western half of the Gulf and a weak surface ridge covering the region E of 90W is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds over the eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through this evening, diminishing slightly through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop Thu night in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered well N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades and 6 to 8 ft seas over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except for light winds and seas in the lee of Cuba. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of low level moisture are now more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean affecting the Windward Islands. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NE to E N of 25N between 43W and 65W where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail across the remainder of the offshore forecast waters W of 55W with seas of 6 to 9 ft based on altimeter data. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic and extends from 24N42W to 14N45W. A few thunderstorms are near the northern end of the trough. Moderate to fresh SE winds and on the east side of the trough and light to gentle NE to E winds are noted ahead of it. Seas are 6 to 8 ft near the trough axis. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure located NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen under the influence of this system. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds near the coast of Morocco where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail across the waters E of 35W, except in the lee of the Madeira, Canary and Cabo Verde Islands where sea heights are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas across the offshore waters N of 20N and east of 70W will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The front will move eastward across the far northern waters through Sat. $$ GR