000 AXNT20 KNHC 051049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W, then curves southwestward to 01N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01N19W to 00N30W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07S to 05N between 13W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09S to 02N W of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface observations across the northern Gulf waters indicate reduced visibilities of 3 nm or less due to fog and haze. In coastal waters, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices have issued Dense Fog Advisories for visibilities of 1/2 nm or less. Please visit www.weather.gov for additional information on the Dense Fog Advisories for coastal waters. The gradient between lower pressure over the western half of the Gulf and a weak surface ridge covering the region E of 90W is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. Over the northern Gulf, middle level diffluence supports scattered heavy showers and tstms. An earlier scatterometer pass indicated gale force SE winds in the region of thunderstorms. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through this evening. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin tonight through Thu. By Thu night, fresh to strong SE winds will develop in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico Sat. Otherwise, dense fog is forecast to affect most of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal and NW offshore waters through later this morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic to the northern Caribbean. This ridge combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia supports a tight pressure gradient across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except for light winds and seas in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds forecast for the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night Wed and Thu. Otheriwse, gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover much of the offshore waters N of 20N and E of 70W where large NE swell supports 8 to 10 ft seas. West of 70W to 77W, winds are moderate to fresh from the ESE and seas are moderate. In the central subtropical Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8-11 ft seas. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Over the tropical Atlantic waters, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft across the offshore waters N of 20N and east of 70W will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The front will then slowly move eastward across the far northern waters through Sat. $$ Ramos