000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Tight pressure gradient between a strong 1042 mb high pressure at the north Atlantic near 40N55W, and a quasi-stationary surface trough near 26N47W is supporting strong to near gale-force NE winds and seas of 12 to 17 ft N of 24N between 46W and 65W. These hazardous marine conditions will persist through Sun evening. Once the high has moved east of 45W on late Sun night, a decreasing pressure gradient will allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then extends southwestward across 02N25W to 02N33W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the trough from the Equator to 05N between 10W and 23W, and near the trough from 01N to 03N between 28W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front reaches eastward from a 1017 mb low just east of New Orleans across the Florida Panhandle to beyond northeastern Florida. A surface trough runs southwestward from this same low to the southwestern Gulf. Patchy showers are seen within 100 nm along either side of these features. Across the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, convergent southerly winds are coupling with strong divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft dominate the eastern and central Gulf. Gentle ENE to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the western Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will start to move again later tonight and should be east of the area by Sun morning, while the surface trough dissipates overnight. Expect moderate SE winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon into Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over the southwest Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Trade winds continue across the entire Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are found across the central basin, locally near-gale winds are also present off northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the eastern basin, Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a strong 1042 mb high over the northwestern Atlantic will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean, and Gulf of Honduras through of midweek next week. Fresh to strong NE winds at the north-central Caribbean will diminish to between moderate and fresh late Sun. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a Significant Swell Event. Convergent southerly winds to the south of a cold front off the Georgia-South Carolina coast are generating scattered showers and thunderstorms off the northeastern Florida coast. A stationary front runs southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N45W to 27N51W, then continues as a surface trough to near 23N53W. Another quasi-stationary surface trough is to the east near 26N47W. Enhanced by a pronounced upper-level low in the vicinity near 28N51W, scattered moderate convection is flaring up north of 23N between 38W and 53W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh with locally strong ENE to SE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft exist north of 20N between 46W/51W and 75W, including the southeast Bahamas. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident from the central Bahamas northward to beyond 31N. For the eastern Atlantic including both the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong NNE to E to SE winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft in large mixed swells dominate north of 14N between the Africa coast and 46W. To the south, moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate mixed swells exist from 05N to 14N between the central Africa coast and 42W. Across the western tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/25N between 42W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate NE swell exist. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in gentle to moderate mixed swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough near 26N47W will dissipate through mid week, allowing winds and seas to gradually diminish. Farther west, winds and seas will increase off northeastern Florida by mid week ahead of the next cold front expected to move across the region Thu. $$ Chan